The venture capital market reminds me of a roller coaster—but probably not the kind you’re imagining.

Think about that moment right after you’re seated and strapped in. The car is climbing—click, click, click—and you’re working your way up, expecting freefall any minute. But what if that drop never quite materializes? What if you’re stuck on the way up?

VC these days feels caught in the climb. There’s AI optimism, there’s deal flow, and a resilient sense of purpose—but the payoff keeps stalling for one reason or another. Take IPOs: Klarna, CoreWeave, and Hinge Health all filed to go public in quick succession. CoreWeave took the plunge, only for markets to get throttled by Trump-fueled tariff news. Klarna and Hinge Health? They’ve since reportedly backed off, indefinitely.

AI, meanwhile, is a lifeline, and the dominant force in the marketplace. It seems obvious enough, but when the data comes out, it’s so stark it bears repeating: For Q1 2025, AI has accounted for 71% of total VC deal value, according to new PitchBook data. That’s on track to be a substantial jump from 46.8% last year. This includes Anthropic’s $4.5 billion round, Groq’s Saudi Arabia-fueled $1.5 billion, Infinite Reality’s $3 billion round, and OpenAI’s unparallelled $40 billion round—the largest private funding round in history. CVCs are operating in lock-step, with 41% of their Q1 deals AI-focused, according to PitchBook.

But looking at other numbers, cracks start to show. M&A has been happening, including some very high-profile M&A—here’s looking at you, Wiz—but most M&A has been skewed towards smaller companies: PitchBook estimates 76% of completed acquisitions happened before the acquired company raised its Series B. Which is tough: M&A of any kind feels like good news, but as it currently exists, VC demands larger exits in the long-term. First-time financing is also elusive for many—in Q1, PitchBook counted $3.8 billion invested across 892 first-time deals, down year over year from $4.1 billion in Q1 2024.

There is good news, of course, with the $32 billion Wiz acquisition and the CoreWeave IPO drumming up more exit value since the last quarter of 2021. But clarity remains hard to come by. I’ve been thinking a lot this week about United Airlines, and the two completely different scenarios it outlined in its guidance. That resolute uncertainty feels like a microcosm of the broader landscape.

This is the year of no guidance. Relentless volatility brings motion, but not direction.

Which, I suppose, is why it feels like we’re stuck on the ride.

See you tomorrow,

Allie Garfinkle
X: @agarfinks
Email: alexandra.garfinkle@fortune.com
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VENTURE DEALS

- Cynomi, a Herzliya, Israel-based vCISO platform, raised $37 million in Series B funding. Insight Partners and Entrée Capital led the round and was joined by existing investors Canaan, Flint Capital, and S16VC.

- Irrigreen, an Edina, Minn-based AI-powered sprinkler system technology company, raised $18.8 million in Series A funding from Natural Ventures, Burnt Island Ventures, Ulu Ventures, and others.

- Lace AI, a Mountain View, Calif.-based AI-powered call center automation technology developer, raised $14 million in seed funding. Bek Ventures led the round and was joined by Horizon VC, Launchub, Marcin Zukowski, and Heini Zachariassen.

- Scamnetic, a Tampa-based AI-powered digital threat protection technology provider, raised $13 million in Series A funding. Roo Capital led the round and was joined by 1st and Main Growth Partners, SaaS Ventures, and Riptide Ventures.

- Adaptive, a San Francisco-based AI-powered computing personalization solution, raised $7 million in seed funding. Pebblebed led the round and was joined by Conviction Partners, Anti Fund, Radical Ventures, and David Baszucki.

- Vizzy, a London-based digital portfolio platform for job candidates, raised £3.7 million ($4.8 million) in seed funding. Adjuvo led the round and was joined by Oberon Private Ventures and angel investors.

- Acoru, a Madrid-based fraud and scam detection cybersecurity company, raised €4 million ($4.5 million) in seed funding from Adara Ventures and Athos Capital.

- Wonder, a London-based AI-powered creative studio, raised $3 million in pre-seed funding. LocalGlobe and Blackbird led the round and were joined by Mati Staniszewski, Laura Modiano, Ross Dinerstei, and others.

PRIVATE EQUITY

- Summit Partners invested $55 million in Instrumentl, an Oakland-based full-lifecycle grant solution provider for nonprofits and universities.

- Apptegy, backed by JMI Equity, acquired AlwaysOn, a Newport Beach, Calif.-based AI-powered chatbot for K-12 school websites. Financial terms were not disclosed.

- GTCR, the Chicago private equity firm, has found an investor for Ultimus Fund Solutions. Stone Point Capital is taking a stake in Ultimus, a provider of fund administration services. GTCR and Stone Point will jointly control Ultimus with equal governance, according to a statement. In February, Fortune reported that GTCR was seeking an investor for Ultimus in a deal that could value the company at $2 billion. The Ultimus transaction comes just days since GTCR agreed on April 17 to sell its remaining 55% stake in Worldpay to Global Payments.

- GTO Partners acquired a majority stake in Complea, a Nørresundby, Denmark-based IT and digitalization services provider. Financial terms were not disclosed.

- Ignite Visibility, a portfolio company of Mountaingate Capital, acquired Outliant, a remote web development and marketing services provider. Financial terms were not disclosed.

- J.C. Flowers agreed to acquire the U.S. motor insurance business of Admiral Group, a Cardiff, Wales-based financial services company. Financial terms were not disclosed.

- Kanbrick acquired Laboratory Testing Inc., a Hatfield, Pa.-based material testing and calibration services provider. Financial terms were not disclosed.

- Littlejohn Capital acquired 3P Processing, a Wichita-based surface metal processing and finishing solutions provider. Financial terms were not disclosed.

- Marlin Equity Partners acquired a majority stake in Didomi, a Paris-based data privacy and consent management solutions provider. Didomi acquired Addingwell, a Lille, France-based server-side tagging platform. Financial terms were not disclosed.

- Security 101, a portfolio company of Gemspring Capital, acquired Integrated Systems & Services, an Eatontown, N.J.-based security systems integrator. Financial terms were not disclosed.

- StenTech, a portfolio company of Align Capital Partners, acquired BlueRing Stencils, a Windsor, Colo.-based surface mount technology stencils and other components provider. Financial terms were not disclosed.

- Vector Capital Management acquired Bigtincan, a Waltham, Mass.-based AI-powered revenue enablement solutions provider, in a transaction valued at approximately $183 million AUD ($117 million)

OTHER

- LaunchDarkly acquired Highlight, a remote open source, full-stack monitoring platform. Financial terms were not disclosed.

- Stone Ridge acquired Wincoram Asset Management, a Houston-based capital solutions provider for the physical and financial energy markets. Financial terms were not disclosed.

PEOPLE

- Goldman Sachs named Darius Adamczyk, a former Honeywell CEO, to co-lead its new Global Portfolio Operations Group alongside Lou D’Ambrosio. Adamczyk was also named a Goldman partner. As part of Global Portfolio Operations, Adamczyk and D’Ambrosio, ex-CEO of Sears and Avaya, will work to improve Goldman portfolio companies across various sectors including private equity, growth equity, infrastructure, and credit. Adamczyk spent 16 years at Honeywell including serving as CEO from March 2017 to June 2023. He joined Goldman last year as advisory chairman of private investments and operations.

- The Cashmere Fund, a Los Angeles-based interval fund, added Josh Allen as a partner and investor. Allen is quarterback for the Buffalo Bills.

In Q1 2025, AI commanded 71% of total VC deal value, according to PitchBook